OpenAI's $300 Billion Valuation Marks AI Capital Cycle Peak
The latest tender offer crystallises a valuation expansion that has outpaced even the company's accelerating revenue trajectory.
Secondary tender documents circulating among existing OpenAI shareholders this week price the company at approximately $310 billion — a near doubling from the $157 billion implied by its primary round just nine months ago.
Annualised revenue, by the company's own disclosure, has crossed $11 billion. The implied multiple of roughly 28 times forward sales is rich even by software industry standards but moderate against comparable hyperscaler valuations during prior infrastructure cycles.
Microsoft remains the dominant strategic shareholder, with structural rights to a substantial share of profits beyond a defined return threshold. The company's position complicates any path to a public listing.
Competitive pressure is intensifying. Anthropic's latest funding round priced the company at $80 billion, and xAI, Mistral and DeepMind are all expanding aggressively. Margin compression in core inference revenue is the consensus risk.
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